Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Demise of the Euro?

The Euro seemed like a good idea didn't it?  Meant to facilitate easy trade and circulation of capital between neighboring countries in Europe, and to promote economic development in the member countries, at first, the Euro showed a lot of promise.  The problem with a monetary or economic union, is that they don't work to well if people aren't on the same footing going in to the union.  Greece and Germany, the former being a "periphery" nation in Eurozone, and the latter being a "core" nation in Eurozone never were on the same footing.

After spending and borrowing aggressively in the hopes of being more competitive in the early part of the decade, Greece ran into a buzz saw late in the decade when the financial and real estate bubbles burst.  Having overspent and having not made significant gains against the other economies in the EU, countries like Greece, as well as Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain suddenly found themselves with unpaid debt and insufficient economic output to cover the gap.  Lacking control over monetary policy only further complicated their problems.  Now, facing coercive bailouts at the price of extreme deficit cutting measures, the periphery nations face a conflict between civil unrest and uncertain waters outside of Eurozone.

 Meanwhile, Germany and company face the distinct possibility of losing a currency value advantage if they leave Eurozone, but can at least avoid rising inflation associated with continued bailouts for the periphery.

It's getting harder and harder to see why these dance partners got on the floor to begin with, let alone why they'd stay past the witching hour.

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